AN epidemic of asbestos-caused diseases is lurking dangerously on the horizons of the United States. Already, as many as 10,000 people are succumbing to such diseases every year in the country. And since most cases are detected 15-50 years after the causative exposure to asbestos (which, in most cases, took place up to the mid-1970s), there is every likelihood that the death graph will continue into the next 10-15 years.
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Though research into new medical treatments has yielded some encouraging clinical findings thus far, their efficacy at the public level is yet to be established. There is not a single state in the United States that has not reported asbestos-caused deaths. The states in which maximum mortalities have happened are California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
Diseases and deaths
Asbestos-related diseases usually affect the tissues surrounding the lungs though a minority (about 10%-15%) of cases also affect other organs, or tissues surrounding them, such as the heart, stomach, and intestines The diseases caused by exposure to asbestos dust are:
- Asbestosis
- This is basically non-malignant but, if not treated in time, can lead to mesothelioma.
- Around 1,400 deaths annually.
- The actual death figure is probably higher given that 50% of asbestosis cases is misdiagnosed and not reported.
- Death toll to peak in 2015.
- Mesothelioma
- This is usually a malignant disease.
- Though most cases affect the pleura (protective layer over the lungs), it can also affect peritoneal (abdominal) or pericardial (heart) protective tissues.
- Around 2,500 deaths annually.
- Death toll to peak in 2015.
- Lung cancer
- Asbestos-caused lung cancer is usually the result of deterioration in mesothelioma.
- Around 4,800 cases annually, not counting lung cancer cases with no occupational exposure to asbestos.
- Abdominal cancer
- Asbestos-caused abdominal cancer usually affects the gastro-intestinal tract.
- Can also result from deterioration in mesothelioma condition.
- Around 1,200 cases annually.
Why death rate will rise
As many as 3,000 asbestos-containing industrial and consumer products were marketed in the United States until the 1970s when the health hazards posed by asbestos became widely known. Not only were asbestos workers heavily exposed to asbestos dust, they also carried the dust home as it can also be transported on clothing.
Reasonably effective safeguards started coming into existence only circa 1980, by which time hundreds of thousands of Americans had inhaled asbestos dust. In many cases, economy-minded employers chose not to provide asbestos safeguards to their workers (which is why US law provides for mesothelioma victims and/or dependents to sue the relevant employer for monetary compensation).
Though asbestos products are now scarcely available in the United States, the damage done in the period up to the mid-to-late-1970s is now showing up. The long time between the causative asbestos exposure and disease detection stands explained by the 15-50 year latency of asbestos-related diseases. It should be noted that despite protective regulations in the law book, asbestos air levels were found to exceed permissible levels at 13% of construction and 5.6% of manufacturing sites monitored by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) even as late as in 1999. Even more alarming is the fact that asbestos levels were found to be higher than much weaker pre-1980 regulations.
Thus, as years roll on, more cases of asbestos-linked diseases, hence deaths, can be anticipated.
Death forecast
Currently, around 10,000 people are dying of asbestos-related diseases in the United States. At the same time, medical research including clinical trials of new remedies are underway. Even if these efforts meet with exceptional success, the number of cases will not be reduced because the damage has already been done decades ago.
To forecast the number of mortalities, let us consider two scenarios on the medical research aspect:
- Scenario 1: No major medical breakthrough.
In this scenario, the death rate will not change. So, at the present rate of 10,000 deaths a year, the next 10 years should witness 100,000 deaths, or 30 deaths a day. But this is an ‘optimistic’ estimate.
For a more realistic estimate, one should note that the above figures are linked to the current detection rate. Given the 15-50 year latency period of cancerous asbestos-related diseases, and given 1980s as the cut-off year when hazardous occupational exposure to asbestos was effectively stopped, the number of diagnosed cases will rise every year and peak in 2015 or thereabouts.
The 1990s saw detected cases rising at 4.4% annually for asbestosis and 3.5% annually for mesothelioma. If these growth rates remain until 2010-15, total mortalities in the next 10 years can be expected to be around 200,000.
- Scenario 2: Major medical breakthrough.
In this scenario, let us assume that the medical breakthrough/s will cut the death rate by 50%. However, going by the argument in the above paragraph, the detection rate will continue to increase. If this rate increases as mentioned above, number of deaths would be closer to 100,000 in the next 10 years, or 30 a day.
The nationwide nature of the epidemic threat comes into sharp focus when one considers that all states in the United States have reported asbestos-related deaths. The states that top the mortalities list are: California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, and Texas. States with the lowest incidence are Wyoming, and Alaska.
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Summary
Asbestos-caused occupational diseases will see between 10,000 to 150,000 deaths in the next 10 years in the United States. Though medical research breakthroughs can be expected, it is unlikely that they will make a difference in the number of deaths.
This is because a lower death rate will be offset by higher detection rates because of the long latency period of asbestos-related diseases. Clearly, asbestos – one time hailed as a ‘miracle mineral’ – has unleashed forces of an epidemic due to past lack of knowledge and, in many cases, employers’ insensitivity to the health of workers. |
